Why Mildura is performing better than expected

Mildura is a regional town on the Murray River, where Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia meet. It is 550km from Melbourne, so it is not a commute town or a holiday town. It stands alone.

And that is the first key point about Mildura. The people that live there work there, and so the demand for housing is local.

Mildura is the main town for the Sunraysia and Mallee hinterland, drawing people from regional towns across the state and borders to receive health, shopping, education and government services.

That has implications for housing demand and value, because it’s local, not propped up by a tourist industry, or people commuting to the capital for work.

The thing that makes it different: it doesn’t have one job

This is the thing that always interests me about regional towns: a lot of them are built around one job, one industry, one big employer.

A bad year for that one employer can see a whole town’s property values take a hit.

Mildura is different, in that its employment base is varied. Health care leads the pack at 16%, with farming, retail, education and construction all weighing in on the demand for housing in the town.

The lack of a dominant industry is important in smoothing out the risks to property values. The hospital will continue to need staff and services no matter how the harvesting goes, and retailers will continue to need stock no matter how the farming industries operate. It creates a steady demand for housing.

And the jobs themselves are continuing to grow. Construction has grown around 30% since 2016, health care 25%, and farming 25%. There’s a diversity there, and growth across industries, not in one area supporting another.

The market as it currently stands

Having a decent jobs base is all well and good, but what about the market itself?

Prices sit at a median of the mid $500,000s. That’s relatively cheaper than Melbourne prices, but similar to other regional cities, it gives buyers the chance to get into the market at a much lower price.

But a lower price does not necessarily mean the market is weaker. Prices have risen around 12% over the past year, which is decent considering how many bigger cities are falling, and houses are selling quickly, often within a couple of months. Vacancies in the rental market are very low, leading to high competition. Yields are good, around 4.6% to 4.8%.

So it’s affordable, prices are rising, selling quickly, and there’s little vacancy. This combination attracts many investors looking for a steady yield. It didn’t overheat, which is a good thing

Mildura has a more measured growth curve than many of its counterparts along the coast, and will not have the same fall to come. This isn’t a bad thing, as most regional towns that experienced a boom had a large fall to follow.

The demand to buy in is consistent, with days on market falling and stock being less available since 2024. With this comes increased buyer activity that is seen as a good sign by investors.

The big projects

It’s common in regional town overviews to name every proposed project as if it is already complete. I want to explain the reality, because there are two big projects in Mildura that need to be measured.

The Murray Basin Rail Project has upgraded the Mildura freight line since 2018, but the completion of the project has been postponed since 2020, with no building since then. It is worth keeping an eye on, but I would not count on it happening.

The Mildura Base Hospital needs a major upgrade, which will happen eventually, but no government has funded the build to date. One side of politics has promised money to see it built ahead of the November 2026 state election, but it is not a guarantee.

The region is seeing active energy investment and active development of new housing estates, totaling a $300 million value pipeline. I would look to invest based on known factors and be cautious about the promises made. 

What I would look to purchase here

Mildura is a smaller market, and so it requires a different approach to property selection to a capital city.

I’d want an established house with good access to the hospital, town and major work areas. They will have the most consistent demand and widest appeal for both rent and sale channel buyers, and should be sought after.

The aim is to get a local family or renter appeal, given the smaller size of the market and the potential for wide appeal. That’s the safety net for a buyer looking to invest, especially at the point of sale.

Final Word

There are good reasons to look at Mildura, but I would still be selective about what I buy, and I’d take care to sell it that way. It has a smaller market appeal, and requires a more considered approach to purchase for any buyer looking to enter.

But it has genuine fundamentals for a regional buyer. Affordable prices. Broad industries for job security. Growing population. High rental demand. Measured, not overheated, growth. Stability across industries and across time. A market that has continued to rise even as the big cities have fallen over the past year.

For an investor looking for an affordable and stable market, that ticks many of the boxes.